We look at returns of various asset classes such as equity, debt, gold, crude oil and the Indian rupee in our latest monthly market summary.
We use data for these charts from Investing.com
All major global equities corrected sharply in February. As can be seen in the chart above, every major market has fallen in the range of 4 to 5 per cent. The medium and long term returns though are still good, with most markets giving double digit returns in the last year. Emerging markets in particular continue to do well. The Sensex also continues to underperform the broader EM basket.
The 10 year G-sec yield has moved up sharply over the last few months. From a yield of under 6.5 per cent in August 2017, the bond yields are now over 7.7 per cent. Yields moved up even more sharply post budget because of macro concerns on fiscal slippage by the government. On the global front, there is continuing indications of monetary tightening and, with global growth picking up, there has been a surge in commodity prices creating expectations of rise in global yields. All these factors are probably weighing on the debt markets.
Gold continues to trade in the 1200-1400 dollars per ounce range. A strong move of gold outside of this range would give a better indication of its long term trend.
Oil corrected sharply in February from roughly 70 dollars a barrel to 63 dollars a barrel. This is positive for the Indian macro scenario. Because of our large dependance on oil imports, it is important to keep an eye on this figure.
The Rupee was stable against the Euro and the Pound in February but continued its depreciation against the Yen. Similarly, the currency depreciated slightly against the dollar. This probably reflects global strength of the Yen currency.
Rishad is the founder of Kairos Capital. He started his career with Standard Chartered Wealth Management and has extensive experience in markets, particularly in terms of mutual funds and stocks.