Monthly Market Summary: June 2018

Wednesday, July 4th, 2018

We look at returns of various asset classes such as equity, debt, gold, crude oil and the Indian rupee in our latest monthly market summary.

 

We use data for these charts from Investing.com

 

Global Equities

Monthly Market Summary

The S&P 500 and the Sensex were flat in June but continue to show great returns over the one and three year horizons. However the returns of the Sensex mask the much deeper correction happening in the small and mid cap space. This is part of the much deeper correction happening in emerging markets as well as other developing markets outside the USA. As can be seen in the charts above, both MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have corrected sharply in June. This could be as a reaction to increased likelihood of trade wars as well as a rising interest rate environment led by the US Fed.

 

Fixed Income

The 10Y G-Sec continued to trade higher on concerns on the macro environment and even touched eight per cent in June. Rising oil prices, a depreciating rupee and fiscal concerns are putting a cloud on the Indian macro story.

 

Gold

Although it corrected sharply in June, gold continues to trade in the 1200-1400 dollars per ounce range. A strong move of gold outside of this range would give a better indication of its long term trend.

 

Oil

Oil stayed relatively range-bound in June. It appears that this commodity now breaking out on the higher side. Because of our large dependance on oil imports, it is important to keep an eye on this figure as it can have a destabilising effect on our macros.

 

Indian Rupee


The Rupee depreciated against the Dollar and the Euro and stayed relatively rage bound against the Yen and Pound. This is a reflection of global trends of a strong dollar.

 

 


About the author

Rishad is the founder of Kairos Capital. He started his career with Standard Chartered Wealth Management and has extensive experience in markets, particularly in terms of mutual funds and stocks.

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